On Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015 Ohio voters soundly defeated Issue 3, the proposed constitutional amendment to legalize marijuana, 64 – 36%. Despite being outspent 15 to 1, voters clearly rejected this measure to put a marijuana monopoly in Ohio’s constitution.
SPP was proud to co-manage the opposition campaign, Ohioans Against Marijuana Monopolies, along with Steiner Public Relations. Including the passage of state Issue 2, this brings the total number of Ohio ballot issues managed by SPP to eleven.
No On Issue 3’s Campaign Manager and SPP Partner, Brandon Lynaugh shares four important lessons from the campaign.
Lesson #1: Know your Turnout Model
Turnout in an off year election is always lower than a general election, but also the demographic makeup of the electorate is different. More conservative voters, both Republican and Democrats, turn out in off year elections and the electorate is also much older than in general elections. This severely hurt legalization proponents because they never had a true base of support among these typical off-year voters. To win, they needed to fundamentally change the turnout model for an off-year by driving younger, more liberal, and less likely voters to the polls. While there was a heavy push on university campuses, the youth vote never materialized. In fact, many college towns either opposed or barely passed Issue 3. As we saw this year, when a campaigns’ turnout model does not match the typical turnout, the challenge can be insurmountable.
Lesson #2: Don’t Mix Messaging
Another challenge presented by the off year was to find messages that mitigated losses of high propensity voters (usually older, more conservative) while motivating low propensity voters (usually younger, more liberal) to turn out. While the paid media campaign had traditional messages that focused on the benefits marijuana would bring to sick patients, tax revenue and new jobs, the ground game was much more focused on the recreational nature of marijuana. Messages to young voters played on the stereotypical weed culture and even featured “Buddy” a marijuana mascot. These two messages do not occur in vacuums, and mixing the two hurt the campaign’s credibility – especially among typical voters.
Lesson #3: Grassroots Support Matters
Proponents never shook the “monopoly” label and struggled to garner any true grassroots support. The pro Issue 3 campaign had investors, not endorsements. On the other hand, our campaign was one of the largest coalitions ever assembled for an Ohio ballot issue. Over 140 associations, business groups, chambers of commerces, faith leaders and law enforcement groups actively participated in the campaign. They got the word out to their members repeatedly over the course of the campaign. This immense grassroots support allowed us to carry our message to voters through trusted sources and to show credibility.
Lesson #4: Be Wary of Public Polls
Leading up to Election Day, there were a number of widely discussed public polls that claimed Issue 3 was too close to call or was winning. These polls failed in a number of ways including surveying voters that were not representative of the 2015 electorate and simply not asking the question that was on the ballot. While many polls found broad support for marijuana legalization in general, support for the specific Issue 3 plan was never above 50%. The methodology of these polls should have been scrutinized more closely before taking them at their word.
